Is Putin Africa’s new best friend?

In July, Russia will host an Africa summit in St Petersburg to boost Moscow’s popularity on the continent. Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, never misses a chance to remind the African elite that the Soviet Union backed their liberation struggles at independence and during the Cold War. But will today’s African citizens benefit from President Putin’s friendship?

Moscow benefits from instability (a euphemism for violence, ethnic cleansing and murder) on the continent in three ways: arms sales, military agreements and access to Africa’s vast mineral wealth. Russia circumvents Western sanctions; its mercenaries in places like the Central African Republic, Mali and Libya provoke waves of migration which have a toxic impact on European politics; and Moscow validates African despots who disregard international law and the West’s professed open society values of democracy, term limits, transparency and accountability.

Moscow achieves some of these objectives at arms’ length through shady proxies such as the Kremlin-adjacent Wagner Group which keeps corrupt and brutal dictators in power, crushing local democracy movements and leading to brain drain. According to Kier Giles of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, “The sad fact is that Russia is selling what some leaders want to buy.”

Russia has overtaken China as the biggest arms supplier to Africa. The Kremlin has also signed dozens of military deals with rulers like Paul Biya of Cameroon and other authoritarian regimes such as Eritrea, Burundi, Mozambique, and Sudan who prefer to hedge their bets, rather than express solidarity with Ukraine during United Nations votes. The thinking of some in the Kremlin may be that           access to ports in Sudan and Cameroon, may allow Russia      to exert a stranglehold on global shipping routes.

Moreover, there has been a domino effect where one African country after another expels the French military, welcoming Russian advisers and the Wagner Group. According to security analyst Paul Reynolds, “France is perceived as too heavy-handed in client states like the Central Africa Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad. Russia has spotted an opportunity, mobilising its propaganda capability to spread disaffection.”

In February, South Africa, Russia and China held joint naval exercises. Reynolds says, “It looks as if Russian military agreements are following Chinese ones, so we can expect more Russian military cooperation in Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan and Eritrea.”

In Sudan, Russia has links with both warring generals – Hemedti of the Rapid Support Forces and Burhan of the Sudanese armed Forces – currently laying the country to waste. Hemedti signalled his solidarity by visiting Moscow on the day Russia invaded Ukraine. His RSF has worked hand-in-glove with M-Invest, a Russian company connected to Putin through the Wagner Group, exporting many billions of dollars of Sudanese gold to Russia, tax-free and duty-free.

If Hemedti loses his fight with Burhan, Moscow can fall back on its strong relationship with the Sudanese Armed Forces. In 2017, Russia signed a 25-year deal for a naval base at Port Sudan from which it could impede if it wanted, the shipment of oil from the Gulf through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Port Sudan will be Russia’s only overseas base besides Tartus in Syria. It will also give Russia leverage over shipping from India and the Far East to most of the rest of the world. There will be four Russian warships and 300 personnel at the Port Sudan base but it is unknown what type of weapons will equip the fleet. Moscow has a vested interest in stopping a civil-led government emerging from the Sudanese conflict because they would likely cancel the Port Sudan deal, meaning Russia would look to Eritrea for a base.

On the other side of the continent, in Cameroon, the port of Douala is used by Russia to export the gold, timber, coffee and sugar it exploits from the neighbouring Central Africa Republic. Russian mercenaries are rumoured to bring weapons into Africa via International Global Logistic, a Russia company based in Douala. Cameroon’s Paul Biya, recently renewed a military agreement with the Kremlin. It is not known if the Russian navy will station ships at Douala, from where it could threaten access to  Gulf of Guinea oil fields. Back in London, in response to a Parliamentary Question, the UK Foreign Office seemed oddly sanguine about Cameroon’s military agreement with Russia.

Dr Chris Fomunyoh of the National Democratic Institute says,      ”Despite its strategic location as the pathway to the Atlantic for many landlocked countries and a stabilising bridge between West and Central Africa, Cameroon has never ceded its territory to serve as a permanent military or naval base for any foreign powers.  To cede such a privilege to Russia in the strategic port city of Douala would raise anxiety among domestic actors and international partners.  No one would sleep peacefully at night knowing that Russia or its satellite Wagner Group controlled access to the Gulf of Guinea and some of the most natural resources rich countries on the African continent.”    

Keir Giles says the Kremlin makes an attractive partner to autocrats who dislike the West’s moralising about democracy, transparency, girls’ education, corruption, and the environment. Many see the West as hypocritical (invading Iraq, abandoning Afghanistan) and inconsistent (turning on and off humanitarian aid projects as Western priorities change).

Decades of Western-funded development counts for little with rulers who are unconcerned by the welfare of their subjects. By contrast, the relationship with Moscow is cynical, based on the self-interest of the tiny elite in both countries. A report from the South African Institute of International Affairs points out that Russia has fulfilled few promises of infrastructure projects or aid, suggesting that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s anti-colonial rhetoric conceals Russia’s own neo-colonial agenda. This irony may not worry the African despots with whom they do business.

Although the USA has 6,000 military personnel in Africa, there is a perception that America is an inconsistent friend, with many embassies lacking ambassadors during the tenure of      President Trump whose contempt for the continent did not win the US favour, either.

Yet, it is not too late to woo hedging nations back from Russia’s embrace. More consistent Western engagement would include not losing interest in resolving crises (South Sudan), or expecting peace negotiations to conclude to a Western timetable, or treating the men with guns as their partners in the search for sustainable peace (Sudan).

On March 31st, the Kremlin published a “foreign policy concept,” updating its 2016 worldview. Africa was relegated to a sub-paragraph in the Eurasia section. Perhaps African rulers should ponder that when making friends with Moscow.  In the immediate term, they may also want to reconsider attending the July summit and being photographed standing by an International Criminal Court indictee for crimes against sixteen thousand Ukrainian children.

Rebecca Tinsley’s novel about Sudan, When the Stars Fall to Earth, is available in English and Arabic on Amazon.